【明報專訊】Population ageing refers to the rise in life expectancy and the fall in birth rates, which together cause the age group of people over 60 to grow as a proportion of the entire population. Population ageing often reflects public healthcare enhancement and socioeconomic development. However, it also poses a challenge to society, which in response must adjust its fabric and welfare policies to protect the elderly in terms of their health, security and social participation.

■Globalisation

Population ageing - a global trend

According to World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision published by the United Nations, the world's population will continue to age.

■Modern China

The "two-child" policy

More than three decades after the launch of the "family planning policy(計劃生育)", the mainland is experiencing a structural change of its population, facing problems such as ultra-low birth rates and gender imbalance. Its problems of population ageing and low birth-rate are also more serious than the world as a whole.

In late 2016 the government ended the "one-child" policy and allowed its people to have two children.

■Today's Hong Kong

The continued ageing of HK population

In October 2017 the Census and Statistics Department made a projection for Hong Kong's population. Excluding foreign domestic helpers, the percentage of people aged 65 or above was estimated to increase from 17% of the total population in 2016 (numbering 1.16 million) to 31% in 2036 (numbering 2.37 million), and rise further to 37% in 2066 (numbering 2.59 million). This means that, one in three people would be elderly.

Working-age population × retirement age

It is estimated that the working-age population, which numbered 3.62 million in 2016, will peak at 3.678 million in 2021, before shrinking gradually to 3.13 million in 2066. Professor Paul Yip Siu Fai (葉兆輝)of the HKU Faculty of Social Sciences argues that the government should study the possibility of raising the retirement age and explore new job types suitable to the elderly.

Old-age poverty × living allowances

In November 2017 the government published Hong Kong Poverty Situation Report 2016. The report showed that, despite recurrent expenditure policies such as Old Age Allowance and Old Age Living Allowance, 340,000 elderly people remained in poverty. The poverty rate of people aged 65 and above was 31.6%, rising 1.5% from 2015.

Matthew Cheung Kin Chung(張建宗), the Chief Secretary for Administration, admitted that the structural problem of population age was an irreversible one that had offset the effect of welfare policies.

Today's Hong Kong×Public health

Increase in healthcare expenditure

In 2014 the Elderly Health Care Voucher Scheme became a permanent policy. Under the scheme, people aged 65 or above are entitled to a health care voucher worth HK＄2000 a year. It is hoped that the scheme will divert a portion of elderly patients to the private healthcare system. As of late October 2017 the scheme had cost taxpayers HK＄4.262 billion since the launch of its pilot scheme in 2009.

[通通識 第521期]