´¶±t¥KEric Veiel¡G
¬ü«ö®§®Æ¦^¸¨¦Ü5Íù §Q¦n¦a²£ªÑ
¬ü°êÁpÀx§½¤W©P¤¤´î®§0.5Íù«á¡A¤¤°ê¤H¥Á»È¦æ«e¤é¥ç«Å¥¬´î®§°·Ç¤Î±N²{¦³©Ð¶U§Q²v¤U½Õ0.5ӦʤÀÂI¡A¹ï·í¦a¼Ó¥«§¡ÄÝ¥¿±¡C´¶±t¥K¥þ²y§ë¸ê¥DºÞݺ®u§ë¸êÁ`ºÊEric Veiel¬Q¤é¨Ó´ä¥X®u¸Ó¦æ¥D¿ìªº¨È¬w§ë¸ê½×¾Â´CÅé¶ê®à·|ij®Éªí¥Ü¡A¤¤°ê¤Wz¬Fµ¦¤è¦V¥¿½T¡FVeiel¤S¹w´Á¡AÀHþÓ¬ü°ê¤w¶}®i´î®§©P´Á¡A«ö´¦§Q²v±N¥Ñ²{®É¹O6Íù¦^¸¨¦Ü¬ù5Íù¡A¬Ý¦n·í¦a¦a²£ªÑ¤Î¨ü´f¼Ó¥«¦¨¥æ¶q¤W¤Éªº®ø¶OªÑ¡C
¼Ó¥«¤W¤É¥i±a¨Ó°]´I®ÄÀ³¡A¦³§Q¸gÀÙ¼Wªø¡A¬Û¤Ï¥çµM¡A¦]¦¹¡Aéw¼Ó¥«¹ï¸gÀÙµo®iÄÝ«D±`«n¡C¤º¦a¼Ó¥«2021¦~¤U¥b¦~¦Ü¤µ»ù¶q»ô¶^¹O3¦~«á¡A¤º¦aª÷¿ÄºÊºÞ¾÷ºc«e¤é²×©ó±À¥X³Qµø¬°¬O¦¸¶^®ö¨ä¤¤¤@¦¸³Ì«n±Ï¥«±¹¬I¡A·í¤¤¡A¤H¥Á»È¦æ°£¤F¤½¥¬¤U½Õ7¤Ñ´Á°f¦^ÁʧQ²v0.2Íù¦Ü1.5Íù¥~¡A¥ç¹w§i±N·|¤U½Õ¦s´Ú·Ç³Æª÷²v0.5ӦʤÀÂI¡A¨Ã¥B±N²{¦³©Ð¶U§Q²v°¦Ü±µªñ·s³y©Ð¶U§Q²v¤ô¥¡A¥§¡°´T¬ù0.5ӦʤÀÂI¡A®Æ¥i¬°¬ù5000¸U¤á¨Ñ¼Ó©~¥Á¨C¦~¦@¸`¬Ù1500»õ¤¸¤H¥Á¹ô§Q®§¤ä¥X¡A±a°Ê´äªÑùÚ«ü¤Î¤º¦aº²`300«ü¼Æ«e¤é§¡¤W¤É¹O4%¡A¬Q¤é§¡Ä~Äò¿ý±oªñ1%¤É´T¡C
¬üÁpÀx¤W©P´î®§®Ä¤O º¢«á¤@¬q®É¶¡©l¤Ï¬M
´¶±t¥KEric Veiel¬Q¤é³Q°Ý¤Î¹ï¤¤°ê¬F©²¬O¦¸¨ë¿E¸gÀÙ±¹¬Iªº¬Ýªk¡A¥Lªí¥Ü¡G¡u§A¤]¬Ý¨ì®ø®§¤½¥¬«áªÑ¥«¤ÏÀ³²z·Q¡A§Úªº¬Ýªk¬O¡A¥Ñ©ó¦b®ø®§¤½¥¬«e¥«³õ§ë¸ê®ðª^¯h®z¡A³o¬O¥«³õªº¥¿±`¤ÏÀ³¡C§Y¨Ï§Ú¤£Ä±±o³o¨Ç¬Fµ¦¤@©w¥i¥O¥«³õ´_Ĭ¡A¦ýªÖ©wÄݤè¦V¥¿½T¡A¬G§Úı±o°²¦p¬Fµ¦¨£¨ì¦¨®Äªº¸Ü¡A§ë¸êªÌ·|¹ï¤¤°êªÑ¥«§ó·P¿³½ì¡C¡v
¦Ü©ó¬üÁpÀx¤W©P´î®§¹ï·í¦a¼Ó¥«ªº¼vÅT¡AVeiel«h¦³¸Ô²Óªº½×z¡C¥Ñ©ó¬ü°ê¤£¤Ö¸m·~ªÌ¦©ó2020¦~²Ä¤G©u¦Ü2021¦~§C®§Àô¹Ò®É¤wÂê©w§C¦Üªñ3Íùªº«ö´¦§Q²v¡A¦Ó¸g¹L2022¦~3¤ë¦Ü¥h¦~7¤ëÁpÀx§½¤j´T¥[®§5.25Íù«á¡A«ö´¦§Q²v¥ç´¿¸òÀH«æ¤É¦Üªñ8Íù¡A¹L¥h¤@¦~²¤¬°¦^¸¨¡A²{®É³B©ó¹O6Íù¤ô¥¡AVeiel¤ÀªR¡A³o¤´°ª©ó³QÂê©w©óªñ3Íùªº«ö´¦§Q²v¡A¦]¦¹§Y¨ÏÁpÀx§½¤W©P´î®§¡A¤´»Ýnº¢«á¤@¬q®É¶¡¤~¯à¤Ï¬M¬Fµ¦¦¨®Ä(a lag effect)¡A©Î¤é«á¤´»Ýn§ó¦h¦æ°Ê¡A¥O«ö´¦§Q²v¦^¸¨¦Üªñ5Íù¤ô¥¡A¤~¥i§¹¥þÄÀ©ñ·í¦a¦í¦v¥«³õªº¼ç¤O¡C
¬ü«ö®§¦^¸¨¦Ü5Íù¥i±a°Ê¦¨¥æ ¤£¼{ªwªj
¨Æ¹ê¤W¡A©Ð¦a¬ü¬ü°ê¤@¤â«ö´¦¥«³õ½Õ¬d30¦~©w®§«ö´¦§Q²v(Freddie Mac Enhanced Primary Mortgage Market Survey US 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate)¤W©P¥§¡¬°6.09Íù(¨£¹Ï)¡A§Y¨Ï¸û¥h¦~10¤ë³Ì«á¤@©P°ª¦ì7.79Íù¦^¸¨¤£¤Ö¡A¦ý¤´µM»·°ª©ó2020¦~²Ä¤G©u¦Ü2021¦~§C®§Àô¹Ò®É¤ô¥¡C
©Ð¦a¬ü(Freddie Mac)¤Î©Ð§Q¬ü(Fannie Mae)§¡ÄÝ©ó¬ü°ê¬F©²¤ä«ù¥ø·~¡A¨ä¥Dn·~°È¬O¦b¦V»È¦æ¦¬ÁÊ·í¦a©Ð«Î©è©ã¶U´Ú¡A¦A¥´¥]¬°«ö´¦©è©ãÃÒ¨é(Mortgage Backed Securities)¦V§ë¸êªÌµo°â¡A¦¹Á|¥LÌ¥i¥HÁȨú§Q²v®t¶Z¥~¡A¥ç¥i«P¶i·í¦a«ö´¦¥«³õ¡A¤]¬°§ë¸êªÌ´£¨Ñ§ó¦h¿ï¾Ü¡C
¦V«e±æªº¸Ü¡AVeiel¹w´ú¡A¬ü°ê«ö´¦§Q²v¦^¸¨¦Üªñ5Íù¤ô¥¬O«Ü¥i¯àµo¥Íªº¨Æ¡G¡u§Úı±o¬ü°ê«ö´¦§Q²v¦bªñ5Íù¦¹¤ô¥¥i¥H¨ë¿E¼Ó¥«»Ý¨D¡A±a°Ê¦¨¥æ¼W¥[¡A¦P®É¤]¤£·|¹³2004¦Ü2005¦~¥O¼Ó¥«¥X²{ªwªj¡C¡v
¬ü¤j«°¥«¼g¦r¼Ó ¦û¾ãÅé©Ð²£³W¼Ò¤£¨¬¤@¦¨
¦Ü©ó¬ü°ê¤j«°¥«¼g¦r¼Óªñ¦~¥Ñ©ó¨ü²Ö¦b®a¤u§@¦¹·s¿³¤u§@¼Ò¦¡¡A¥O¨ìªÅ¸m²v¤W¤É¤Î¯²ª÷¤U¶^¡A¥[¤W°ª®§Àô¹Ò¥ç¤£§Q¦ôÈ¡AVeielªí¥Ü¡A·U¨Ó·U¦h¬ü°ê¤½¥q¤wn¨Dû¤u¦^¨ì¼g¦r¼Ó¤W¯Z¡A¦Ó¥B¦¹ªO¶ô¦û¬ü°ê¾ãÅé©Ð¦a²£³W¼Ò¥ç§C©ó10%¡A¦³Ãö·ÀIÄÝ¥i±±¡C